John Bolaris' Outlook For the 2011-12 Winter Season

PHILADELPHIA - It’s that time of year again! John Bolaris is back with winter outlook for the 2011-12 season.

La Nina is returning again this winter but it will not as strong as last year.

John explains about the atmospheric jigsaw puzzle that makes the long range forecasting complicated. The phases of the NAO (North Atlantic Oscilation) & the AO (Arctic Oscillation) will play a key role in how much snow we will get. However, we can only forecast these phases up to 2 weeks in advance. The last two years both phases we negative which favors more snow for the area. So far the forecast for these phases should remain positive as we head toward the beginning of December..after that?

This winter season will feature temperature extremes from near record warm stretches to quick arctic blasts. Overall the average temperature will be slightly below average.

The amount of snowfall expected for the entire season will range from 15”-20” in Southern New Jersey/Delaware to 24”-30” in the Philly Metro area, 30”-40” in the NW suburbs and over 40”+ in the Lehigh Valley /Poconos.

The brunt of the snowfall will fall in the Great Lakes into Northern New England where record snows could fall.

However depending on the phases of the NAO & AO, A more positive phase could lower expected totals or a more negative phase could make drive the snow amounts higher like last year.

Overall, it will be a rough winter but it won’t be record setting.