Data Show Phils Ready To Pass Eagles

An analysis of user data publicly provided by Google shows a potential historic shift in fan loyalty in the Philadelphia region, as the Philadelphia Phillies take advantage of the NFL lockout, and a lack of interest in the Eagles.

The Google Insights database is used by marketers to sell online advertising, and it tracks what people search for by region in Google.

Marketers use Google Insights to see historically if more people are interested in the Phillies, the Eagles, the Sixers or the Flyers. (Google evens out the math so results can be compared over time.)

And as of April 2011, the Eagles have the Phillies in their rear-view mirror Philadelphia's favorite sports team, based on data published since 2004. Clearly, the Phillies' popularity numbers are going up as the Eagles are stuck in limbo.

In money terms, the Eagles are worth a lot more than the Phillies, Flyers and Sixers, and in Google's math, the Eagles are more popular than the Phillies as of April 2011, based on data for the past 12 months.

But the Google gap between the area's NFL and MLB teams is shrinking fast, and the current trend line could show the Phillies passing the Eagles in the near future, if the Phillies' numbers keep rising.

Since 2004, the Philadelphia Eagles have been the dominant pro sports team in the region.

The Google scale from 0 to 100 compares "search interest" based on the biggest event of the recent local sports era: The Eagles loss to Patriots in the Super Bowl. That event has a score of 100 on the Google scale.

Next on the list are the Eagles NFC title game loss to Carolina, the Phillies' World Series win in 2008 and the Owens-McNabb era.

Table: Biggest Pro Sports Events Since 2004 (Searches In Philly Metro Area)

Since 2004, the average monthly scores are Eagles 23, Phillies 13, the Flyers 8 and the Sixers at 6.

But the Google database shows a big sea change in October 2008, when the Phillies won the World Series and ended Philadelphia's title drought.

The Eagles haven't seen a Google score as high as their September 2008 rating of 32. In fact, the team's recent playoff run peaked at a Google score of 29 with the loss to the Packers.

And based on Google's historic data, interest in the Phillies today is at a peak.

For April 2011, the Phillies have a Google score of 25, compared to 4 for the Eagles, for searches in the Philadelpi

Based on Google's math, interest in the Phillies today is at the same level as last fall, when the Phils lost to the Giants in the NLCS.

And in the past two years, the Eagles don't have a monopoly on the biggest sporting news in Philadelphia, even thought the August 2009 signing of Michael Vick remains the most-popular search since August 2009.

The bigger problem for the Eagles is that the NFL has never had a devastating labor action, unlike the other three major pro sports.

The NFL and Major League Baseball have about the same annual merchandise sales, with $2.5 billion for football and $2.3 billion.

As interest wanes in the Eagles, local sports fans may buy more Phillies gear and less NFL stuff, and some local advertisers would feel the pressure to advertise with the more popular team.

And an economic study of pro sports strikes and lockouts released by the University of Maryland in 2000 shows two interesting trends: pro sports labor actions don’t affect local economies and local spending habits don’t change.

A 2006 follow-up study confirmed “no statistically significant effect on taxable sales is found from the sudden absence of professional sports due to strikes and lockouts.”

By The Numbers is a regular MyFoxPhilly feature that looks at key Philadelphia issues behind publicly available numbers and research.
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